A flooded residential area in Bor, Jonglei State. October 2021. (Photo/Charles Wote/Eye Radio).

The IGAD climate centre has suggested measures that South Sudan must put in place to mitigate anticipated flooding and heat stress that will cause displacement, disease outbreaks, and increase vulnerability in most parts of the country.

The report titled “summary for decision makers on seasonal forecast – June to September 2024”, indicates above-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

The ICPAC said the riverine flooding is expected in parts of Jonglei, Lake State, Unity, Upper Nile and Central Equatoria, while dry spells are expected in parts of Northern Bahr El Ghazal.

“This is the main rainfall season for South Sudan. Floods and heatwaves are expected over most parts of the country,” IGAD said.

“This could cause displacement, disease outbreaks, conflict, water scarcity, migration, increased vulnerability of women, children and the elderly, and damage of infrastructure and agricultural land.”

It advises South Sudan to embark on disseminating early warning to communities at risk, strengthen existing dykes and flood defense mechanisms as well as identify evacuation centers and responsive health education.

On Agriculture and Food Security, ICPAC said the enhanced rainfall in the central and eastern parts of the country will improve moisture for crop and range land production.

The report further said there is likely going to be an increase in human, crop and livestock diseases and water borne pests associated with increased rainfall and warmer than normal temperatures.

On health, the regional climate center predicated an upsurge in malaria incidences, Acute Watery Diarrhea and the ongoing yellow fever cases in Western Equtoia.

It advised South Sudan authorities to preposition anti-malarial drugs and Rapid Diagnostic Tests to state hubs.

Also, to ensure availability of clean water and treatment tablets to communities and carry out vaccination and enhance disease surveillance.

On conflict early warning, IGAD predicts flood shall cause displaced in Jonglei and Warrap which will increase humanitarian situation of Internally Displaced Persons and conflict between IDPs and host communities around resettled areas with better adaptable conditions.

It adds that areas around Ilemi Triangle in Eastern Equatoria, shall experience increased resource competition due to the anticipated variability in the geographic weather pattern.

Meanwhile, Aweil and neighboring areas in the Bar El Ghazel region are predicated to receive an influx of Mesiriya of Sudan which shall increase tensions and conflicts over resource.

It advised the authorities to identify potential IDP hosting areas that will receive climate refugees and displaced persons for humanitarian aid and provision of basic services.

The report also calls for engagement in local peace committees to manage the access and sharing of the resources to mitigate conflict severity especially in Eastern Equatoria.

It also called for the implementation of the existing resolutions in Aweil and Bahr el Ghazel areas as there are existing cross border commit-tees to ensure peaceful coexistence of the communities.