UNMISS chief highlights fragile consensus over S. Sudan’s political transition ahead of elections

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has highlighted growing challenges facing the country’s political transition, citing fragile political consensus, unresolved provisions of the peace agreement, security concerns and questions surrounding preparations for the December 22 elections.

In a briefing to the United Nations Security Council, the head of UNMISS said elections had dominated political discussions since the previous briefing, while consensus around the transition had become increasingly fragile.

“Since my last briefing, elections have dominated the political discourse, while the consensus around the transition has become increasingly fragile,” she told the Council.

She said the central question was whether South Sudan’s transition would remain anchored in the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) and whether the progress made in recent years could be sustained beyond the elections.

The briefing comes after amendments to the National Elections Act were adopted on September 21, followed by the dissolution of the Transitional Government of National Unity and its replacement with a caretaker administration on September 22.

The government has maintained that the changes are intended to facilitate elections and advance the transition. The UNMISS chief said her engagements with government officials indicated a determination to proceed with the December 22 polls.

However, she identified several outstanding concerns, including security arrangements, logistics, the capacity of the National Electoral Commission to conduct elections within a compressed timeframe and the implementation of pending provisions of the peace agreement.

The briefing also noted that some opposition groups remained outside the Inter-Party Dialogue, whose outcome is still pending. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) has maintained that the release of its leader, Dr. Riek Machar, is a prerequisite for its participation in dialogue.

On women’s political representation, the UNMISS chief said recent political changes had fallen short of the 35 per cent quota provided for under the peace agreement.

She also observed that the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) had begun conducting nationwide party primaries, while electoral activities among other registered political parties remained limited.

Emphasising the importance of continued political engagement, she said elections should form part of the transition rather than bring it to an end.

“As I noted in my last briefing, elections must be a milestone in the transition, not its conclusion. Elections cannot substitute for political dialogue, confidence-building and continued implementation of the Peace Agreement,” she said.

On the security situation, the UNMISS chief reported a decline in armed confrontations between the principal signatories to the peace agreement but said civilian casualties and displacement had increased during the year.

She attributed the changing security situation to local grievances, factional divisions and competition over resources, which continue to affect stability in different parts of the country.

In Jonglei State, confrontations involving government and opposition-aligned local forces, alongside the mobilization of armed youth, continue to threaten civilians.

In Unity State, divisions within the SPLM/A-IO have contributed to clashes around Leer and Rubkona counties.

The briefing also cited violence in Rumbek and Greater Tonj counties last month, which reportedly left more than 140 people dead.

According to UNMISS, communal violence remains the principal driver of civilian harm, accounting for more than 60 per cent of reported casualties this year.

The Mission said it continued to support civilian protection and conflict prevention efforts in affected areas.

In Rumbek, UNMISS rapidly deployed personnel to help protect civilians, secure the local hospital and assist humanitarian partners. In Mundri East County, local conflict prevention efforts contributed to the release of 72 abductees.

The Mission also reported that it had doubled its force protection tasks in support of humanitarian operations, helping life-saving assistance reach more than 321,000 vulnerable people since the previous briefing.

However, the UNMISS chief said operational challenges continued to affect the Mission’s ability to carry out its mandate.

She stressed that freedom of movement was essential to civilian protection and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

“Freedom of movement is a protection issue,” she told the Security Council.

According to the briefing, humanitarian access constraints have increased by 38 per cent over the past year.

Delays in authorizations, including those required for force protection, have affected Ebola preparedness activities and humanitarian drought assessments in parts of the Equatorias.

UNMISS also continues to face movement restrictions in conflict-affected areas, including along the Sobat River corridor, limiting its ability to respond to protection concerns and support humanitarian operations.

The humanitarian situation was another major concern highlighted in the briefing.

The UNMISS chief said approximately 10 million people in South Sudan require some form of humanitarian assistance, while an estimated 7.5 million face food insecurity.

She also reported that 1.4 million people had crossed into South Sudan since fighting erupted in neighbouring Sudan.

The briefing further cited prolonged dry spells, anticipated El Niño-related flooding and the regional Ebola outbreak as additional pressures on the country’s humanitarian response.

On regional engagement, the UNMISS chief said she had intensified consultations with President Salva Kiir, national stakeholders, neighbouring countries, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to help prevent escalation and preserve political space.

She welcomed the continued involvement of the African Union High Representative for South Sudan, former Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, including efforts to implement the C5+ recommendations and establish a joint AU-UN-IGAD mechanism to support political engagement.

However, she emphasized that the responsibility for determining the country’s political direction rested with South Sudanese leaders.

“The responsibility for charting the way forward rests with South Sudanese leaders,” she said, calling for renewed dialogue and a credible roadmap to complete outstanding provisions of the Revitalized Peace Agreement.

In her concluding remarks, the UNMISS chief outlined four priorities: ending fighting and protecting civilians, guaranteeing humanitarian access and UNMISS freedom of movement, expanding political dialogue and supporting the African Union C5+ declaration of September 29.

She said South Sudan’s transition should not be judged solely by whether elections take place on December 22, but also by whether the process preserves peace, strengthens public confidence and fulfils commitments made under the peace agreement.

“The true measure of success is simple: whether South Sudanese citizens are safer tomorrow than they are today,” she said.