A study by The Sudd Institute has warned that coronavirus infections in South Sudan would hit 3,000 in the early days of next month if the current trend continues.

South Sudan responded to the outbreak of COVID-19 in March, by introducing two control measures such as social distancing, and closure of international borders to curtail cross-border transmission of the virus.

However, the report published on Wednesday says COVID-19 preventive measures introduced by President Salva Kiir in March are ineffective, leading to the surging number of coronavirus cases in the country.

Of the two measures, social distancing is the most unsuccessful, as most members of the general public defy this policy measure, according to the think tank.

The research used the COVID-19 laboratory test data administered at South Sudan’s National Health Lab between April 2 and May 20, 2020.

As of May 27, 2020, South Sudan had confirmed 994 COVID-19 positive cases, 10 deaths, and 6 recoveries.

According to the findings, the death rate, which represents 1% of the confirmed cases, is within the global average of 2.5 and 10%.

However, recent updates from the High-Level Taskforce suggest an increasing rate of infection in the population.

From April 2 to May 20, South Sudan recorded 481 cases of COVID-19, averaging over 8 new cases per day.

The report says if the outbreak is spread across the population, the present number of infections translates to 160 cases per 1,000 population, distributed as 92 among men and 172 among women.

At the subnational level, the estimated infection outlook is 571 per 1000 population in Abyei, 500 in Jonglei, 120 in Central Equatoria, and 33 in Eastern Equatoria.

Distributed exponentially, South Sudan’s infection rate is estimated at 12% per day.

“Because the present measures to prevent the spread of the virus in the country are evidently ineffective, the infection is expected to follow a natural distribution rapidly,” said Augustino T. Mayai, author of the report.

“Based on this estimate, the number of confirmed infections per day since the monitoring of the outbreak began would be expected to peak at 96, with a true daily record of new cases bounding between 61 and 131 on a 95% confidence scale.”

He warns that if the present infection rate continues, the total number of confirmed cases in South Sudan would be 3,054 by June 6, with at least 100 new cases of the virus likely to be recorded daily in the coming weeks.

To reverse this trend, the think tank recommends widening testing coverage, adopting lifestyle and behavioral changes, and insulating low-risk populations.